"I'm more and more admiring about Donald Trump and more and more convinced that there's a method in his madness." Boris Johnson, British Foreign Secretary, at a dinner with members of the Conservative Party, 07.06.2018
The next political season ends (if, of course, we assume that there are still summer lulls) with Donald Trump’s vivid diverticulum. The President of the United States causes violent, mostly negative emotions almost everywhere. But world politics is now unfolding under his dictation. The scandalous summit of the Sevens, which made it doubt that a single political "West" still exists. A pompously furnished meeting with Kim Jong-un, overshadowed everything else on the planet for a few days. Declaration of trade war against China, contrary to the agreements that were supposedly reached in May.
And all this is accompanied by fireworks of utterances, from which even well-worn political veterans shudder. "Disgraceful wimp" addressed to the Prime Minister of Canada. “Russian Crimea because they speak Russian”, and “Ukraine is the most corrupt state in the world” ... “I will look at you [Japanese Prime] if you send several million Mexicans to you ...” “Paris is a place where all world terrorists "... The accusations of the German authorities that they manipulate statistics and hide the increase in crime associated with the influx of migrants ... And so on - leaks, tweets, official statements. To top it all - the topic of the meeting of Trump and Putin suddenly returned to the agenda to talk about the need to recreate the G8 (that is, to invite Russia again), but new sanctions against Moscow are introduced almost weekly.
What is all this? Trump’s most irreconcilable opponents around the world, but above all in the United States themselves, portray him as a semi-insane tyrant, an unpredictable peacock who wants only one thing - to be at the center of everyone’s attention. Another part of the critics considered his behavior disgusting, but prudent - he simply extended to global politics the morals of the real estate business with the usual tactic of “hitting-kickback” there. There are those, especially in Europe, who suspected something quite wrong: Trump set out to crush the European Union, so that it was easier to deal with competitors one by one ...
To understand the logic behind Trump and his administration, it’s worth going back to one of the program texts published in the early autumn of 2016.
The presidential campaign in the United States entered a decisive phase at that time; no one could yet believe that Donald Trump could win, although there was growing uncertainty that Hillary Clinton was a good and promising candidate. The Claremont Review of Books, published by the conservative Clermont Institute (this institution is sometimes referred to as the intellectual forge of trampism), published the article “Election as an 93 flight.” The author took the pseudonym Publius Décis Mus (the name of the Roman consul in the 4th century), it later emerged that behind the pretentious ancient name was Michael Anton, a conservative publicist who served among other things in the teams of George Bush and Mayor Rudy Giuliani.
United Airlines 93 flight flew from Newark to San Francisco, was the fourth of the planes hijacked by 11 terrorists on September 2001. According to the official version, the passengers, who understood the intentions of the attackers (the goal was either the Capitol or the White House), attempted to discourage the control room from them, as a result the liner crashed in Pennsylvania. All aboard were killed, but the al-Qaida plan (banned in the Russian Federation) was thwarted.
“The 2016 election is an analogue of the 93 flight: grab the cockpit or die,” wrote Anton. - You can die anyway. Perhaps you - or the leader of your party - will break through into the cockpit without having a clue how to fly the plane or land it. There is not the slightest guarantee. Except for one thing: if you don’t try, you’ll surely die. If you like, there is another metaphor: the Hillary Clinton presidency is a Russian roulette with a self-loading pistol. In the case of Trump, you at least spin the drum yourself and hope for good luck. ”
The author considers as a tragic paradox the inability of the American conservatives to even admit the idea that America and the West are moving towards something very nasty. Despite the fact that the same conservatives are passionately scourging what is happening - the dominance of the state, rising crime, political correctness that has reached the height of McCarthyism, increased taxes, declining infrastructure, a catastrophe in primary and secondary education, etc. But the answer to these spells are only appeals “Improve”, “improve”, “pay attention to” and other non-decisive proposals. As Anton concludes, the general approach comes down to the following: “Everything is very bad, but not so bad that we think about something really different.”
The author of “Flight 93” is sure: everything is so bad that there is almost no chance of success of real classical conservatism. The era after the Cold War, regardless of who was president, led to the fact that the left-liberal agenda turned into a dominant dogma in America and in the world, destroying even the possibility of a return to conservative roots. Conservative politicians have become “extras who help the Davos spill oligarchs rationalize open borders, low wages, outsourcing, deindustrialization, trade policy concessions and endless, senseless wars in which it is impossible to win.” The presidency of Hillary Clinton will become "a pedal to the floor for the entire progressive leftist agenda," and her opponents will face a real moral and political terror when the Americans try to impose the values characteristic of "except the Scandinavian countries or the left most districts in the UK or Germany."
Finally, Anton explains the obsession with the topic of migration: “The most important thing is the tireless importing of foreigners from the“ third world ”who have neither tradition nor taste for freedom means that with each cycle the electorate will become more left-wing, democratic, less republican, less committed to the values of the Republic, less American in the true sense of the word. " Perception of mass migration as an obligatory dogma and good deed is considered by the author to be a form of madness, not losing the opportunity to walk around the Europeans: “Well, just like Angela Merkel after another rape, shooting, explosion or attack with a machete: more, more, more migrants!” (Against the current clinch in Germany on the migration issue sounds very relevant.)
The meaning of the article “Roman Consul” is a call to the conservative chistily, turning up Trump's nose: think again, no matter how imperfect, vulgar or even disgusting the candidate is, he is the only hope for salvation, who is able to radically reconsider the approach to three main subjects : trade, war and immigration. “By our own stupidity, we, the Americans, once made a choice in favor of destroying the unity of our country through idiotic immigration, economic and foreign policies. We will never restore the level of unity that America could boast before the power was seized by a non-party junta. But we can at least try to improve the situation. ”
Michael Anton's essay sparked heated debate in a conservative camp. After Trump's victory, he was invited to work at the White House, and in April of this year, after being appointed presidential assistant for national security John Bolton, Anton resigned as official representative of the National Security Council. According to rumors, he was disappointed in Trump, although he did not publicly state this. Anyway, his essay is an important document explaining the behavior of the US President as a representative of a certain political and ideological group. Trump is a missionary who considers (consciously or intuitively) that he is called to push America and the world away from the death course that they follow, and for this it is necessary to rebuild (more precisely, break) the international system as it has developed over the past decades. And in this regard, he is a very American president, continuing the long tradition of positioning the United States as a "shining city on a hill."
Donald Trump repeatedly repeated - and during the election campaign, and already becoming president - that categorically rejects the line of predecessors to change regimes in other countries and to national construction, to teach outsiders how to live. This, however, does not mean isolationism and indifference towards others. Trump understands that in the XXI century it is impossible to isolate, but you can try to change the world with which America is connected, make this connection more profitable for the USA. And it turns out that the rebel comes to the same methods that are adopted in American politics. Trump is not so much the antipode of the presidents after the Cold War, as their mirror image. He also changes the world, only in the opposite direction. But also in order to create more comfortable conditions for America. This is also because the comfort that could have been gained from the previous system has been exhausted, just as this system itself. The United States reached the peak of its capabilities, acquired with the end of the Cold War.
The most visible parallel with the previous Republican President George W. Bush. He went to the polls under the slogans of classical conservatism - against democratic messianism. But the events of September 11, 2001, dramatically changed the agenda. Americans found that threats to their well-being and life can come from virtually anywhere (from unknown to the overwhelming majority of US citizens Tora-Bora caves, for example). So, measures to protect Americans, that is, measures of national security, should be taken on a global scale. Military force and punitive actions united with the sweet heart of convinced neo-conservatives to promote democracy as a sure way to get rid of hostile regimes. So the administration, set up to distance itself to a certain extent from global problems, has become one of the most interventionist in history.
Trump, continuing the tradition of isolationist Jacksonians, also faced the need to influence the external context, as it quickly became clear that changing America separately, and that was his task, would not work. Well, since the current president is sure that before him, both the planet and the country were almost completely thrown into the netherland, put on the verge of existence (this, in fact, the pathos of Publishing Decia Musa), then radical and all-encompassing measures are required. Hence the feverish military-political activity around the globe and interference in the internal affairs of other states. But - and this is an amazing paradox - first of all, this time not the opponents, but just their own closest allies.
It is not by chance that the “alternative right” ideologue Steve Bennon, Trump's chief strategist who was dismissed from the White House last summer, travels around Europe (Rome, Zurich, Budapest, Prague, Warsaw, Paris, etc.), actively supporting the forces opposing the establishment. He lays special hopes on Italy, where, in his own words, the new government of the far-right League and the “Five Stars” protest for the first time managed to “truly break the paradigm of the left and the right”. That is why, he told League Leader Matteo Salvini, “you can show that populism is a new organizing principle.” It is worth noting that populism in the mouth of Bennon is a concept that is not at all negative, it probably should be translated into Russian as “populism”. In an interview with The New York Times in March of this year, Bennon clearly stated his goal: to create "a living network of populist uprisings in Europe that would overwhelm the political establishment."
Speaking in the Vatican back in 2014, when Trump’s presidency couldn’t have anyone in a nightmare, Bennon said the same thing as Anton in his article, however, addressed the situation not only in America, but in the world as a whole : “In the years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, we partly flew off the highway, and in the 21st century we begin with the fact that I am sure it is a crisis of our church, of our faith, a crisis of the West and a crisis of capitalism.”
Bennon is now formally in no way connected with Trump, which cannot be said about after the United States in Berlin and a firm supporter of President Richard Grenelle, who produced the first-party scandal, barely having been in office for a couple of weeks. He promised to do everything possible to support the new conservatives in Europe (just those who are called populists), and above all in terms of countering migration. Grenell simply listed the names of his favorites in European countries (in Germany, Health Minister Jens Span, a consistent critic of Angela Merkel, turned out to be such), which sounded like a blatant attempt to influence internal processes. Moreover, against the backdrop of the government crisis in Germany, Trump personally intervened in it, starting to tweet the Merkel government, accusing him (it is not clear on what basis) of concealing the problems associated with mass migration.
There is nothing new in this. Ambassador Grenell behaves exactly the same way as US ambassadors in post-communist and especially post-Soviet countries behaved before, as a rule, not embarrassed to give "recommendations" to governments. It’s just that now the turn has reached the developed countries of Western Europe, and the pathos turned out to be anti-liberal. But otherwise, everything is completely in the usual American style.
The White House fights desperately on all fronts: internal - against numerous opponents, external - against allies, partners, opponents, but continues its “93 flight”. Trump sees his place in history as follows: he is the leader who did not allow the monstrous evil act (the global triumph of the left-liberal Leviathan) to take place. And given the desperate situation and the fact that the enemy is very close to victory, this may be achieved at the cost of political suicide. If only to drag with them into the abyss of history that which has been formed over the past decades. Break at any cost. Therefore, Trump is not afraid to swing political, propaganda and economic blows at the institutions that formed the global foundation a couple of years ago.
Trump has reason to hope for success - the wind blows into the sails of those forces that he likes. And this happens for objective reasons, due to the accumulated structural contradictions in societies and changes in attitudes. So, perhaps, passengers who have broken into the cockpit will be able to land the liner. (By the way, Trump's rating is growing, and even some of his fierce opponents are beginning to recognize him for certain merits.) But everyone probably needs to understand something else - if you do not manage to cope with control, then self-appointed pilots will consider it an honor to collapse. way, too, will fulfill its mission. But what it will mean for everyone else, while you can only guess.