"I'm more and more admiring about Donald Trump and more and more convinced that there's a method in his madness." Boris Johnson, British Foreign Secretary, at a dinner with members of the Conservative Party, 07.06.2018
The next political season ends (if, of course, assume that there are still summer lulls), a bright divertissement of Donald Trump. The US president causes rough, mostly negative emotions almost everywhere. But world politics is now unfolding under his dictation. Scandalous summit of the "Seven", which made us doubt that a single political "West" still exists. Pomposely furnished meeting with Kim Jong-no, for a few days eclipsed everything else on the planet. The declaration of a trade war to China in defiance of agreements that seem to have been achieved in May.
And all this, accompanied by fireworks of utterances, which even shuddered political veterans shudder. "Infamous weakling" to the Canadian Prime Minister. "The Crimea is Russian, because they speak Russian," and "Ukraine is the most corrupt state in the world" ... "I'll look at you [the Japanese prime minister] if I send you a few million Mexicans ..." "Paris is a place where everyone is concentrated world terrorists "... The accusations of the German authorities that they manipulate statistics and hide the growth of crime associated with the influx of migrants ... And so on - leaks, tweets, official statements. To top it all off, the topic of the meeting between Trump and Putin, which came back on the agenda, was talked about the need to recreate the G8 (that is, to invite Russia again), but new sanctions against Moscow are introduced almost weekly.
What is all this? The most irreconcilable opponents of Trump around the world, but above all in the United States himself, portray him as a half-mad tyrant, an unpredictable peacock who only wants to be at all costs at the center of everyone's attention. Another part of the critics considers his behavior disgusting, but prudent - he just spread the morals of business in real estate to the global politics with the usual tactic of "hitting-rollback". There are those, especially in Europe, who suspected something quite wrong: Trump set a goal to split the European Union, so that it would be easier to crack down on competitors one by one ...
To understand the logic of the behavior of Trump and his administration, it is worth returning to one of the program texts published in the early autumn of 2016.
The presidential campaign in the United States then entered a crucial phase, no one could believe in the possibility of Donald Trump's victory, although there was growing uncertainty that Hillary Clinton was a suitable and promising candidate. In the journal The Claremont Review of Books, published by the conservative Clermont Institute (this institution is sometimes called the intellectual forge of trampism), an article "Elections as the flight 93" was printed. The author took the pseudonym Publius Decius Mousse (which was the name of the Roman consul in the 4th century), it later became clear that Michael Anton, a conservative publicist who served, among other things, in the commands of George W. Bush and the Mayor of New York, Rudy Giuliani, was hiding behind the pretentious antique name.
Flight 93 of United Airlines flew from Newark to San Francisco, was the fourth of the planes seized by terrorists 11 September 2001. According to the official version, passengers who understood the intentions of the attackers (the goal was either the Capitol or the White House), made an attempt to discourage their control cabin, as a result, the liner collapsed in Pennsylvania. All those who were on board were killed, but the idea of Al-Qaeda (banned in the Russian Federation) was managed to disrupt.
"The election of 2016 is an analog of the 93 flight: take the pilot's cabin or die," wrote Anton. "You can die anyway." Perhaps you - or the leader of your party - break into the cockpit without knowing how to fly a plane or land it. There is not the slightest guarantee. Except for one thing: if you do not try, you will surely die. If you like - another metaphor: Hillary Clinton's presidency is a Russian roulette with a self-loading pistol. In the case of Trump, at least you yourself twist the drum and hope for luck. "
The author considers a tragic paradox the inability of the American conservatives to even admit the idea that America and the West are moving towards something very bad. Despite the fact that the same conservatives passionately scandal the events - the dominance of the state, the growth of crime, political correctness, the glow of McCarthyism, an increase in taxes, a decline in infrastructure, a catastrophe in primary and secondary education, etc. But the answer to these spells are only appeals "Improve", "improve", "pay attention to" and other non-decisive suggestions. As Anton concludes, the general approach boils down to the following: "Everything is very bad, but not so bad that we think about something really different."
The author of "93 Flight" is sure that everything is so bad that the real classical conservatism has almost no chance of success. The post-Cold War epoch, regardless of who was president, led to the fact that the left-liberal agenda turned into a dominant dogma in both America and the world, destroying even the possibility of a return to conservative roots. Conservative politicians turned into "extras who help the oligarchy of the Davos spill to rationalize open borders, low salaries, outsourcing, de-industrialization, concessions in trade policy and endless, meaningless wars in which it is impossible to win." Hillary Clinton's presidency will become a "pedal to the floor for the entire progressive-left agenda," and her opponents will face a real moral and political terror, when the Americans try to impose values peculiar to "perhaps the Scandinavian countries or the most leftist places in Britain or Germany."
Finally, Anton explains the obsession with the theme of migration: "Most importantly, the relentless importation of foreigners from the" third world ", who have neither tradition nor taste for freedom, means that with each cycle the electorate will become increasingly leftist, democratic, less republican, less committed to the values of the Republic, less American in the true sense of the word. " The author considers the perception of mass migration as an obligatory dogma and good deed to be a form of madness, without missing the opportunity to walk through Europeans: "Well, just like Angela Merkel after another rape, shooting, explosion or attack with machetes: more, more, more migrants!" (Against the background the current clinch in Germany on the migration issue sounds very relevant.)
The meaning of the article of the "Roman consul" is a call to the conservative clever people who turn their noses from Trump: think again, however imperfect, vulgar or even disgusting the candidate, he is the only hope of salvation, one who is capable of radically reconsidering the approach to the three main subjects : trade, war and immigration. "By our own stupidity, we, the Americans, once made a choice in favor of destroying the unity of our country through idiotic immigration, economic and foreign policies. We will never restore the level of unity that America could boast of before the power was captured by the supra-Party junta. But we can at least try to improve the situation. "
The essay of Michael Anthon caused a stormy discussion in the conservative camp. After Trump's victory, he was invited to work in the White House, and in April of this year, after the appointment of John Bolton, the national security assistant, Anton resigned as the official representative of the National Security Council. According to rumors, he was disappointed in Trump, although he did not publicly state this. Be that as it may, his essay is an important document explaining the behavior of the US president as a representative of a certain political and ideological group. Trump is a missionary who considers (consciously or intuitively) that he is called upon to push America and the world from the deadly course that they follow, and for this it is necessary to rebuild (or rather, break) the international system as it has developed over the past decades. And in this regard, he is a very American president, continuing the long tradition of positioning the US as a "shining hail on the hill."
Donald Trump repeatedly repeated - and during the election campaign, and already becoming president - that categorically rejects the line of predecessors to replace the regimes in other countries and to national construction, teaching foreigners how to live. This, however, does not mean isolationism and indifference towards others. Trump understands that it is impossible to isolate in the 21st century, but you can try to change the world with which America is connected, to make this link more beneficial for the United States. And it turns out that the rebel comes to the same methods that are adopted in American politics. Trump is not so much the antipode of presidents after the Cold War, as their mirror image. He also changes the world, only in the opposite direction. But also in order to create a more comfortable environment for America. Including because comfort, which could be gleaned from the old system, is exhausted, like the system itself. The United States has reached the peak of its capabilities, acquired with the end of the Cold War.
The most obvious parallel with the previous Republican President George W. Bush. He went to the elections under the slogans of classical conservatism - against democratic messianism. But the events of 11 September 2001 year sharply changed the agenda. The Americans found that threats to their well-being and life can come from virtually anywhere (from unknown to the vast majority of US citizens the caves of Tora Bora, for example). So, measures to protect Americans, that is, measures of national security, should be taken on a global scale. Military-force and punitive actions have united with the dear heart of convinced neo-conservatives with the idea of promoting democracy as a reliable way to get rid of hostile regimes. So the administration, determined to distance itself to a certain extent from global problems, has become one of the most interventionist in history.
Trump, who continues the Jacksonian tradition of isolationists, also faced the need to influence the external context, because it quickly became clear that it was not possible to change America separately, which is his task. Well, if the current president is sure that before him and the planet, and the country was thrown almost into the tartar, put on the brink of existence (in this, in fact, the pathos of Publius Decius Musa), then the measures are radical and all-inclusive. Hence the feverish military and political activity around the globe and interference in the internal affairs of other states. But - and this is an amazing paradox - first of all this time not of opponents, but of its own closest allies.
It's no coincidence that the ideologist of the "alternative right" Steve Bennon, Trump's chief strategist, who was fired from the White House last summer, travels around Europe (Rome, Zurich, Budapest, Prague, Warsaw, Paris, etc.), actively supporting forces opposing the establishment. He pins special hopes on Italy, where, in his own words, the new government of the extreme right-wing League and the protest "Five Stars" for the first time managed to "truly break the paradigm of the left and right." That's why, he told the League's leader Matteo Salvini, "you can show that populism is a new organizing principle." It is worth noting that the populism in the mouth of Bennon - the notion is not at all negative, it probably should be translated into Russian as "populism." In an interview with The New York Times in March of this year, Bennon clearly stated his goal: to create a "live network of populist uprisings in Europe that would overwhelm the political establishment."
Speaking at the Vatican as early as 2014, when Trump's presidency could not have dreamed anyone in a nightmare, Bennon was actually saying the same thing as Anton in his article, although he was addressing the situation not only in America itself, but in the world as a whole : "In the years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, we partly flew off the track, and in the 21st century we begin with what I am sure is a crisis of our church, our faith, the crisis of the West and the crisis of capitalism."
Bennon is now formally not connected with Trump, which can not be said about after the US in Berlin and the firm supporter of President Richard Grenelle, who made a first-rate scandal, barely having been in office for a couple of weeks. He promised to do everything possible to support the new conservatives in Europe (just those who are called populists), and primarily in terms of countering migration. Grenell simply listed the names of his favorites in European countries (in Germany, such was the minister of health Jens Span, successive critic Angela Merkel), which sounded like a frank attempt to influence internal processes. Moreover, against the backdrop of the government crisis in Germany, Trump personally interfered with him, who began to bombard the government with tweets Merkel, accusing him (it is unclear, on the basis of what data) in concealing the problems associated with mass migration.
There is nothing new in this. Ambassador Grenell behaves exactly as the US ambassadors in post-communist and especially post-Soviet countries, as a rule, did not hesitate to give "recommendations" to governments. It's just now the turn came to the developed states of Western Europe, and the pathos turned out to be anti-liberal. But otherwise everything is completely in the usual American style.
The White House fiercely fights on all fronts: internal - against numerous opponents, external - against allies, partners, opponents, but continues its "flight 93". His place in the history of Trump sees this: he is a leader who did not allow himself to accomplish a monstrous villainy (the global triumph of the left-liberal Leviathan). And given the desperation of the situation and the fact that the enemy is very close to victory, it may be necessary to achieve this by the price of political suicide. If only to drag along to the abyss of history what has been formed over the past decades. Break at any cost. That's why Trump is not afraid to inflict political, propagandistic and economic strikes against institutions that were a global foundation a couple of years ago.
Trump has reason to expect success - the wind blows into the sails of those forces that are sympathetic to him. And this happens for objective reasons, due to the accumulated structural contradictions in societies and changes in sentiment. So, perhaps, the passengers who have broken into the cockpit of the pilot, will be able to land the liner. (By the way, Trump's rating is growing, and even some of his fierce opponents are beginning to recognize him for some merit.) But all probably need to understand and another - if the management fails, the self-styled pilots will find it an honor to crash down, they will fulfill their mission. But what this will mean for everyone else, while one can only guess.